Principal Investigator (August 2018 - August 2019) An Analysis of Accessibility, Social Interaction, and Activity-Travel Fragmentation in California. Sponsor: Pacific Southwest Region 9 University Transportation Center, US Department of Transportation, and UCSB. $100,000. Fragmentation of activities and travel is defined here as the multiple sequencing of many relatively short activities and trips that happen in a person’s daily schedule. These are combined with much longer activities and travel to form a complete schedule of activities and travel by each observed individual. Fragmentation of activity-travel schedules may lead to increased transport demand because many activities, enabled by mobile communication technologies and other societal innovations, are no longer bound to specific times and specific places. Our main objective in this research is to close the research gap in understanding how and why individuals engage in activity-travel fragmentation. Studying the correlation of activity and travel fragmentation with social interaction and accessibility offered by the environment in which people live can close this research gap. Closing this gap will provide policy recommendations in the context of SB 375 on land use and travel. This will enable distinguishing between people that face social exclusion and the dichotomy between women spending more time in the private sphere, and less in the public one – and vice versa for men. A secondary objective is to develop robust statistical methods for fine grained spatio-temporal data to improve travel demand forecasting models.
Principal Investigator (January 2018 – December 2018) Vertical Equity Statewide Pilot, Data Inventory, and Guidelines for Performance Based Planning. Sponsor: Pacific Southwest Region 9 University Transportation Center, US Department of Transportation, and UCSB. $123,072. In this project, we develop a method for vertical equity analysis. Vertical equity is the analysis of the disadvantages groups of different incomes and other sociodemographic characteristics experience from the land use-transportation system. We first create a data inventory for the indicators needed to satisfy performance based planning in California. This inventory is comprehensive and covers many goals in CTP 2040. In parallel, using detailed in space and time database in the GeoTrans laboratory we create a first pilot geo-computation of equity indicators covering the entire State at fine spatial detail. We compare data available and this pilot to the literature on gentrification, equity analysis, and access to opportunities. We also develop a crowdsourcing method to collect input for the expert community in three different stages. First on the first pilot geo-computation online and at TRB 2018 and then after an improved method is developed we check with a wider spectrum of experts at an international conference in Santa Barbara. Input from the different expert sources that is used to create a second pilot geo-computation of equity is particularly important and for this reason requires special attention in a dedicated task. The project ends with the creation of guidelines for data collection, computational examples, and guidelines for research and practice.
Principal Investigator (August 2017 – April 2019) Activity Based Model for Qatar. Sponsor: ItalConsult & Ministry of Transport and Communication Qatar. $610,000. In this project in collaboration with Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, a new version of an activity-based travel demand forecasting model is created for the State of Qatar. This simulator includes population synthesis that recreates the entire resident population of this region, provides locations for residences, workplaces, and schools for each person, estimates car ownership and type as well as main driver for each vehicle, and provides other key personal and household characteristics. Then, a synthetic schedule generator recreates for each resident person in the simulated region a schedule of activities and travel that reflects intra-household activity coordination for a day. These synthetic schedules are then converted to multiple Origin Destination (OD) matrices at different times in a day and used in other modeling tasks developed by ItalConsult.
Principal Investigator (June 2017-August 2017) Qatar Activity-based Model Preparation and Initial Design. Sponsor: ItalConsult & Ministry of Transport and Communication Qatar. $50,000. In this project, in collaboration with Professor Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Professor Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, we conducted a series of meetings with all the local agencies involved in the project. We examined data and plans for data collection and developed a temporal sequence of model development and testing. Moreover, in this task will provided a series of seminars on data needs for policy analysis, modeling and simulation in activity-based approaches, synthetic population generation, household travel surveys, and the design of choice experiments.
Investigator - Visiting External Scientific Collaborator at University of the Aegean. (February 2016 to December 2017) OPTIMUM (Multisource Big Data Fusion Driven Proactivity for Intelligent Mobility). Sponsor: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 636160-2. EUR 5,966,186. The aim of this project is to develop and distribute state-of-the-art information technology solutions to improve transit, freight transportation and traffic connectivity throughout Europe. Through the management and processing of multisource big data and the creation of tailor-made applications, OPTIMUM will strive to make transport systems more interoperable, adaptable and dynamic. The project includes 18 partner organizations and eight European countries with a duration of approximately 3 years (http://www.optimumproject.eu).
Principal Investigator (Co-PI Krzysztof Janowicz). (July 2016 - June 2017) Long Distance Travel in the California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) and Social Media Augmentation. Sponsor: University of California Center /CALTRANS. $173,409. The objectives of this project are to: a) provide empirical evidence for long distance travel behavior analysis using synthetic population methods; and b) identify the determinants of long-distance travel behavior. The method provides CALTRANS with a powerful baseline inventory of travel demand statewide and creates the foundation for future updates. The archived data and their analysis also enable the study of vulnerable segments of the population as well as developing an estimate of long distance travel contribution to the statewide VMT. Our initial workshop in Sacramento illustrated the potential of these methods and the technical problems we solve in the project, and the final report explains and demonstrates the findings from CHTS, the potential of harvesting social media, the regression and structural equations models and latent class clusters developed here, their substantive findings, and a variety of ideas for using similar methods for other purposes.
Principal Investigator (September 2013 to September 2015) UCCONNECT Transportation Student Fellowships for UCSB. US Department of Transportation. $100,000. This funding is provided for graduate students in the Transportation Emphasis at UCSB and allocated based on merit, study orientation in transportation, and intention to follow a transportation career.
Principal Investigator. (April 2012 to September 2014) Business Establishment Spatial Evolution Microsimulation (BESEM). Sponsor: University of California Transportation Center/CALTRANS. $44,000. The ultimate objective of this initiative is to create software that is able to replicate the change in location of each business establishment in California as a function of its relationship with other business establishments and the transportation infrastructure connecting all businesses. This is a much needed method to: a) show the spatial correlation between business location (and implicitly jobs) and infrastructure by each business type at a microlevel; and b) compute activity opportunity based accessibility indicators that capture observed changes due to businesses moving into the state, moving out of the state, and relocating from one region to another. Schemata for each business type (medical, retail, legal) will be first developed and tested with real world data using point process statistical models and measures of centrality and clustering. In addition, economic efficiency and relocation behavior is also analyzed to discern patterns of regularity/stability and change. Eventually, models of location/relocation will be developed and used in simulating urban environments. The tasks include data assembly and assessment of quality, testing of spatial statistics models, creation of the simulator framework, and testing.
Principal Investigator. (September 2014 to September 2015) Spatial Transferability Using Synthetic Population Generation Methods. Sponsor: : University of California Transportation Center/CALTRANS. $119,000. In this project we will develop a new method to transfer daily travel behavior data from one place to another. This fills a critical gap in practical applications that need data to study behaviors but also to estimate behavioral models. The basic ingredients of this new method are: a) the most recent California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) data that includes household and person characteristics and an one day place-based diary that spans an entire 12 month period in 2012 and 2013; b) a very detailed database of all the business establishments in California that enables computation of land use indicators at many geographical scales; and c) highway and public transportation networks connecting all the business establishments to all the CHTS participants. In the project we will first develop a classification system of the different determinants of household travel behavior and then use variables at the person, household, and spatial organization levels. Then, we will divide CHTS into two parts. The first will be used as the seed in synthetic population generation and the second to validate the new method. We will then perform experiments and find the best method to disseminate among practitioners.
Principal Investigator (August 2006 to September 2014) UCTC Transportation Student Fellowships for UCSB. US Department of Transportation - University of California Transportation Center. $673,000. This funding is provided for graduate students in the Transportation Emphasis at UCSB and allocated based on merit, study orientation in transportation, and intention to follow a transportation career.
Principal Investigator. (April 2009 to June 2013) SCAG Activity-based Travel Demand Model Development: Development of Simulator of Activities, Greenhouse (gas) Emissions, Networks, and Travel (SimAGENT). Sponsor: Southern California Association of Governments. Approximately $1,400,000. In this project in collaboration with Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, the requirements of California Senate Bill 375 and the regional transportation modeling guidelines are addressed by developing an activity scheduling model system and insert it into the overall model system of SCAG. The simulator includes population synthesis that recreates the entire resident population of this region, provides locations for residences, workplaces, and schools for each person, estimates car ownership and type as well as main driver for each vehicle, and provides other key personal and household characteristics. Then, a synthetic schedule generator recreates for each resident person in the simulated region a schedule of activities and travel that reflects intra-household activity coordination for a day. These synthetic activity and travel daily schedules are then converted to multiple Origin Destination (OD) matrices at different times in a day. These are in turn combined with other OD matrices (representing truck travel, travel from and to ports and airports, and travel generated outside the region) and assigned to the network in multiple periods in a day. The assignment output is then used in the software EMFAC to produce estimates of fuel consumed and pollutants emitted (including CO2) by different classes of vehicles. The overall model system also includes provision for finer spatial and temporal resolutions that is pilot tested using TRANSIMS and MATSIM. In addition, spatial allocation (geolocation) techniques are used to assign household to residential parcels and activities to all land parcels in a region. Moreover, testing of second by second vehicle emission estimation using the output of TRANSIMS and CMEM was also successful.
Principal Investigator. (January 2009 to December 2012) Development of Next Generation Agent-based Simulation. Sponsor: UC Lab Fees Program. UC Office of the President. $870,000. In this project, realistic agents are created using observed and reported data from persons and their households including a variety of time use, activity participation, and travel surveys combined with large databases available from public agencies and private companies. Also key is the inclusion of weekly rhythms in the life of people, their interactions with other people within their strongest and most influential social network (i.e., the household), life cycle stages, and people’s complex interactions with the built environment. In this project, different modeling techniques are developed, tested, evaluated, and implemented to demonstrate them in applications. This project generated a base suite of tested models, provided core information for many new research proposals, strengthened the GeoTrans laboratory at UCSB, and offered unique opportunities for our graduate students in developing modeling and simulation careers.
Principal Investigator. (April 2010 to June 2013) California Household Travel Survey Pre-test Design and Management Consultant. Sponsor: Southern California Association of Governments. $90,000. In this project Goulias with Dr. Morrison designed a pre-test for the California Household Travel Survey (an approximately 65,000 household survey) and developed a list of data items required for the modeling needs of California to address SB 375 policy questions today and to also prepare for new modeling needs in the future for large, medium, and small MPOs as well as CALTRANS. Goulias also supervised data collection efforts and analyzed outcomes using quality assurance and control techniques.
Principal Investigator. (August 2009 to December 2010) Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration (Year 22). Sponsor: University of California Transportation Center, $102,000. In this project we develop a new travel demand forecasting system that integrates demographic microsimulation with urban simulation and travel demand model systems. The basic ingredients of this new model system are: a) a dynamic demographic simulator designed and tested with repeated observations of the same individuals in another context that will be transferred to a case study in Santa Barbara, CA; b) a modified version of the recently finalized Urbansim model that will also be calibrated with data from Santa Barbara, CA; and c) travel demand models that account for intra-household interactions and path based accessibility that were estimated with data from California. The model system is unique because it combines within a day and across years human behavior dynamics and it will push the frontier of modeling and simulation one step further. A pilot test of land use models was tested in Santa Barbara, CA, and a strategy for next steps was developed.
Principal Investigator (January 2018 – December 2018) Vertical Equity Statewide Pilot, Data Inventory, and Guidelines for Performance Based Planning. Sponsor: Pacific Southwest Region 9 University Transportation Center, US Department of Transportation, and UCSB. $123,072. In this project, we develop a method for vertical equity analysis. Vertical equity is the analysis of the disadvantages groups of different incomes and other sociodemographic characteristics experience from the land use-transportation system. We first create a data inventory for the indicators needed to satisfy performance based planning in California. This inventory is comprehensive and covers many goals in CTP 2040. In parallel, using detailed in space and time database in the GeoTrans laboratory we create a first pilot geo-computation of equity indicators covering the entire State at fine spatial detail. We compare data available and this pilot to the literature on gentrification, equity analysis, and access to opportunities. We also develop a crowdsourcing method to collect input for the expert community in three different stages. First on the first pilot geo-computation online and at TRB 2018 and then after an improved method is developed we check with a wider spectrum of experts at an international conference in Santa Barbara. Input from the different expert sources that is used to create a second pilot geo-computation of equity is particularly important and for this reason requires special attention in a dedicated task. The project ends with the creation of guidelines for data collection, computational examples, and guidelines for research and practice.
Principal Investigator (August 2017 – April 2019) Activity Based Model for Qatar. Sponsor: ItalConsult & Ministry of Transport and Communication Qatar. $610,000. In this project in collaboration with Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, a new version of an activity-based travel demand forecasting model is created for the State of Qatar. This simulator includes population synthesis that recreates the entire resident population of this region, provides locations for residences, workplaces, and schools for each person, estimates car ownership and type as well as main driver for each vehicle, and provides other key personal and household characteristics. Then, a synthetic schedule generator recreates for each resident person in the simulated region a schedule of activities and travel that reflects intra-household activity coordination for a day. These synthetic schedules are then converted to multiple Origin Destination (OD) matrices at different times in a day and used in other modeling tasks developed by ItalConsult.
Principal Investigator (June 2017-August 2017) Qatar Activity-based Model Preparation and Initial Design. Sponsor: ItalConsult & Ministry of Transport and Communication Qatar. $50,000. In this project, in collaboration with Professor Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Professor Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, we conducted a series of meetings with all the local agencies involved in the project. We examined data and plans for data collection and developed a temporal sequence of model development and testing. Moreover, in this task will provided a series of seminars on data needs for policy analysis, modeling and simulation in activity-based approaches, synthetic population generation, household travel surveys, and the design of choice experiments.
Investigator - Visiting External Scientific Collaborator at University of the Aegean. (February 2016 to December 2017) OPTIMUM (Multisource Big Data Fusion Driven Proactivity for Intelligent Mobility). Sponsor: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 636160-2. EUR 5,966,186. The aim of this project is to develop and distribute state-of-the-art information technology solutions to improve transit, freight transportation and traffic connectivity throughout Europe. Through the management and processing of multisource big data and the creation of tailor-made applications, OPTIMUM will strive to make transport systems more interoperable, adaptable and dynamic. The project includes 18 partner organizations and eight European countries with a duration of approximately 3 years (http://www.optimumproject.eu).
Principal Investigator (Co-PI Krzysztof Janowicz). (July 2016 - June 2017) Long Distance Travel in the California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) and Social Media Augmentation. Sponsor: University of California Center /CALTRANS. $173,409. The objectives of this project are to: a) provide empirical evidence for long distance travel behavior analysis using synthetic population methods; and b) identify the determinants of long-distance travel behavior. The method provides CALTRANS with a powerful baseline inventory of travel demand statewide and creates the foundation for future updates. The archived data and their analysis also enable the study of vulnerable segments of the population as well as developing an estimate of long distance travel contribution to the statewide VMT. Our initial workshop in Sacramento illustrated the potential of these methods and the technical problems we solve in the project, and the final report explains and demonstrates the findings from CHTS, the potential of harvesting social media, the regression and structural equations models and latent class clusters developed here, their substantive findings, and a variety of ideas for using similar methods for other purposes.
Principal Investigator (September 2013 to September 2015) UCCONNECT Transportation Student Fellowships for UCSB. US Department of Transportation. $100,000. This funding is provided for graduate students in the Transportation Emphasis at UCSB and allocated based on merit, study orientation in transportation, and intention to follow a transportation career.
Principal Investigator. (April 2012 to September 2014) Business Establishment Spatial Evolution Microsimulation (BESEM). Sponsor: University of California Transportation Center/CALTRANS. $44,000. The ultimate objective of this initiative is to create software that is able to replicate the change in location of each business establishment in California as a function of its relationship with other business establishments and the transportation infrastructure connecting all businesses. This is a much needed method to: a) show the spatial correlation between business location (and implicitly jobs) and infrastructure by each business type at a microlevel; and b) compute activity opportunity based accessibility indicators that capture observed changes due to businesses moving into the state, moving out of the state, and relocating from one region to another. Schemata for each business type (medical, retail, legal) will be first developed and tested with real world data using point process statistical models and measures of centrality and clustering. In addition, economic efficiency and relocation behavior is also analyzed to discern patterns of regularity/stability and change. Eventually, models of location/relocation will be developed and used in simulating urban environments. The tasks include data assembly and assessment of quality, testing of spatial statistics models, creation of the simulator framework, and testing.
Principal Investigator. (September 2014 to September 2015) Spatial Transferability Using Synthetic Population Generation Methods. Sponsor: : University of California Transportation Center/CALTRANS. $119,000. In this project we will develop a new method to transfer daily travel behavior data from one place to another. This fills a critical gap in practical applications that need data to study behaviors but also to estimate behavioral models. The basic ingredients of this new method are: a) the most recent California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) data that includes household and person characteristics and an one day place-based diary that spans an entire 12 month period in 2012 and 2013; b) a very detailed database of all the business establishments in California that enables computation of land use indicators at many geographical scales; and c) highway and public transportation networks connecting all the business establishments to all the CHTS participants. In the project we will first develop a classification system of the different determinants of household travel behavior and then use variables at the person, household, and spatial organization levels. Then, we will divide CHTS into two parts. The first will be used as the seed in synthetic population generation and the second to validate the new method. We will then perform experiments and find the best method to disseminate among practitioners.
Principal Investigator (August 2006 to September 2014) UCTC Transportation Student Fellowships for UCSB. US Department of Transportation - University of California Transportation Center. $673,000. This funding is provided for graduate students in the Transportation Emphasis at UCSB and allocated based on merit, study orientation in transportation, and intention to follow a transportation career.
Principal Investigator. (April 2009 to June 2013) SCAG Activity-based Travel Demand Model Development: Development of Simulator of Activities, Greenhouse (gas) Emissions, Networks, and Travel (SimAGENT). Sponsor: Southern California Association of Governments. Approximately $1,400,000. In this project in collaboration with Chandra Bhat from UT Austin and Ram Pendyala from Arizona State University, the requirements of California Senate Bill 375 and the regional transportation modeling guidelines are addressed by developing an activity scheduling model system and insert it into the overall model system of SCAG. The simulator includes population synthesis that recreates the entire resident population of this region, provides locations for residences, workplaces, and schools for each person, estimates car ownership and type as well as main driver for each vehicle, and provides other key personal and household characteristics. Then, a synthetic schedule generator recreates for each resident person in the simulated region a schedule of activities and travel that reflects intra-household activity coordination for a day. These synthetic activity and travel daily schedules are then converted to multiple Origin Destination (OD) matrices at different times in a day. These are in turn combined with other OD matrices (representing truck travel, travel from and to ports and airports, and travel generated outside the region) and assigned to the network in multiple periods in a day. The assignment output is then used in the software EMFAC to produce estimates of fuel consumed and pollutants emitted (including CO2) by different classes of vehicles. The overall model system also includes provision for finer spatial and temporal resolutions that is pilot tested using TRANSIMS and MATSIM. In addition, spatial allocation (geolocation) techniques are used to assign household to residential parcels and activities to all land parcels in a region. Moreover, testing of second by second vehicle emission estimation using the output of TRANSIMS and CMEM was also successful.
Principal Investigator. (January 2009 to December 2012) Development of Next Generation Agent-based Simulation. Sponsor: UC Lab Fees Program. UC Office of the President. $870,000. In this project, realistic agents are created using observed and reported data from persons and their households including a variety of time use, activity participation, and travel surveys combined with large databases available from public agencies and private companies. Also key is the inclusion of weekly rhythms in the life of people, their interactions with other people within their strongest and most influential social network (i.e., the household), life cycle stages, and people’s complex interactions with the built environment. In this project, different modeling techniques are developed, tested, evaluated, and implemented to demonstrate them in applications. This project generated a base suite of tested models, provided core information for many new research proposals, strengthened the GeoTrans laboratory at UCSB, and offered unique opportunities for our graduate students in developing modeling and simulation careers.
Principal Investigator. (April 2010 to June 2013) California Household Travel Survey Pre-test Design and Management Consultant. Sponsor: Southern California Association of Governments. $90,000. In this project Goulias with Dr. Morrison designed a pre-test for the California Household Travel Survey (an approximately 65,000 household survey) and developed a list of data items required for the modeling needs of California to address SB 375 policy questions today and to also prepare for new modeling needs in the future for large, medium, and small MPOs as well as CALTRANS. Goulias also supervised data collection efforts and analyzed outcomes using quality assurance and control techniques.
Principal Investigator. (August 2009 to December 2010) Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration (Year 22). Sponsor: University of California Transportation Center, $102,000. In this project we develop a new travel demand forecasting system that integrates demographic microsimulation with urban simulation and travel demand model systems. The basic ingredients of this new model system are: a) a dynamic demographic simulator designed and tested with repeated observations of the same individuals in another context that will be transferred to a case study in Santa Barbara, CA; b) a modified version of the recently finalized Urbansim model that will also be calibrated with data from Santa Barbara, CA; and c) travel demand models that account for intra-household interactions and path based accessibility that were estimated with data from California. The model system is unique because it combines within a day and across years human behavior dynamics and it will push the frontier of modeling and simulation one step further. A pilot test of land use models was tested in Santa Barbara, CA, and a strategy for next steps was developed.